Google Finance will soon include live probability data from Kalshi and Polymarket, allowing users to check odds for future events such as Fed decisions and economic growth.
For the first time, Google LLC has announced that it will embed live event-probability data from Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket into its Search and Finance platforms, representing a major shift in how market sentiment is reflected for retail users.
Bringing Real-time Probability Data to Everyday Search
The update will allow users to type queries such as “Will the Fed cut rates in December?” or “What is the probability of a US recession in 2026?” and see real-time probabilities drawn from prediction-market contracts. The interface will also display how probabilities shift over time, similar to a price chart. The initial rollout, starting in the US, is scheduled via Google Labs in the coming weeks, with broader access to follow.
Google said the change is part of a broader upgrade to its Finance service, which now uses its Gemini AI models to deliver deeper search responses and research features. The inclusion of prediction-market odds underscores how platforms are increasingly layering new forms of data into mainstream finance tools.
New Insights for Traders and Platforms
Traditionally, prediction markets, platforms where users trade contracts based on event outcomes, have been niche and were often viewed as being adjacent to betting. But with Google embedding such data into its search ecosystem, the implications for traders are significant. It means that probability insights, once the domain of specialised platforms, will become mainstream.
For platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, this development adds credibility and visibility. It also raises questions for brokers, fintech apps and search engines about how users access predictive data, interpret it and trade on it.
From Niche to Mainstream
Kalshi operates as a US-regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), whilst Polymarket runs on a decentralised blockchain model. Both have raised substantial capital and drawn attention from institutional investors. The integration with Google marks a milestone: prediction markets are moving from specialist trading venues towards broader financial-data ecosystems. For traders, this may improve access to real-time signals, but it also raises questions about accuracy, interpretation and market reaction times.
What to Watch Next
Traders should pay attention to the rollout; when Google expands the feature globally, how visible the grids become and how quickly market behaviour responds to odds movement. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket may become sources of broader sentiment beyond just event-outcomes, impacting equities, currencies and commodities as the line between “prediction” and “market insight” blurs. It remains to be seen how regulators respond, especially if these odds feed into trading decisions at scale.
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