Nvidia stock rises ahead of Wednesday’s first-quarter results, as investors patiently await the most anticipated earnings report of the week.
Nvidia (NVDA) is due to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings for 2026 after markets close on Wednesday (28 May), in what has become one of the most eagerly awaited financial updates of the season.
Investors are watching closely after a turbulent start to the year, which saw the Nvidia stock experience significant volatility amid shifting trade policies and geopolitical tension surrounding its AI hardware.
The NVDA share price has faced pressure, most notably from disruptions stemming from a Trump-era ban on shipping its H20 chips to China, alongside broader concerns over upcoming semiconductor tariffs.
Despite this, recent developments have led to improved sentiment. A delayed rollout of the Biden administration’s AI export restrictions and new investment deals announced during Donald Trump’s Middle East visit have helped boost the Nvidia stock price. It currently stands at $135.50, up 1% in 2025 and nearly 27% higher year-over-year.
Today’s quarterly report comes shortly after the Nvidia’s high-profile participation in Computex Taipei. Here, the company unveiled a series of new innovations. Among the highlights was its expanded cloud initiative, which enables users to access Nvidia’s GPUs through third-party cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Foxconn (2354.TW).
Nvidia Q1 2026 earnings projections
Nvidia is expected to post adjusted earnings per share of $0.88 on $43.3 billion in revenue. This compares to $0.61 EPS and $26 billion in revenue during the same quarter last year. These results would reflect strong year-over-year growth, especially in the company’s flagship data center division.
Data center revenue is expected to total $39.2 billion, up 74% year-over-year from $22.5 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, gaming revenue, Nvidia’s second-largest business segment, is predicted to rise from to $2.6 billion from $2.8 billion.
As for regional revenue growth, sales from China are forecast to increase by 150% to $6.2 billion, up from $2.4 billion in Q1 last year. That said, the US remains Nvidia’s largest market. Domestic sales are estimated at $21.6 billion, showing the company’s continued local dominance, regardless of ongoing international pressures.
Nvidia’s H20 chip implications
Despite the projected gains outlined above, Nvidia will have to record a $5.5 billion charge in its first-quarter results. The economic hit, disclosed in an April regulatory filing, relates to the Trump administration’s ban on sales of its H20 chip in China.
The H20 was designed to comply with export rules aimed at limiting China’s access to cutting-edge AI chips. However, further restrictions followed reports that Chinese firm DeepSeek had developed strong AI models using downgraded Nvidia hardware.
In response, the US government informed Nvidia that the H20 would require an export license to be sold to China. While the implementation of these restrictions were later paused, Nvidia began redesigning the chip to meet revised US performance limits. So far no release timeline has been provided.
Nvidia CEO expresses his frustration
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang criticised the current US policy approach at Computex Taipei. He stated that the “enormously costly” and “deeply painful” restrictions had lost the company $15 billion in sales.
“No company in history has ever written off that much inventory,” he said. “Not only am I losing $5.5 billion – we wrote off $5.5 billion – we walked away from $15 billion of sales and probably… $3 billion worth of taxes.”
He added that these restrictive measures are highly ineffective and could help China’s domestic chipmakers. His comments come amid growing industry concern that overregulation may hinder innovation in American firms while accelerating progress abroad.
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