Bitcoin may end 2025 well below its recent peak but it is still far ahead of previous cycles. The key question is, how will it shape up in the next phase going into 2026.
Bitcoin heads into the final month of 2025 in a very different mood to the euphoria seen earlier in the year. After setting fresh record highs, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has cooled sharply, but it remains far above previous cycle peaks and is now being driven as much by institutional flows as by retail traders.
Recent price action has been choppy. Bitcoin is trading around the $90,000 region after a steep pullback that saw it tumble from its peak and lose roughly 16% over the past few months. November also brought a wave of ETF redemptions, with spot Bitcoin funds recording almost $3.8 billion in net outflows before stabilising into month-end.
ETF Flows: From One-Way Inflows to a More Nuanced Market
The launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 unleashed a torrent of institutional and retail capital, helping push prices to new highs in 2025. By late this year, more than $50 billion had been channelled into these products, according to research cited by Deutsche Bank.
That flood of money has changed how Bitcoin trades. Analysts note that while ETF demand helped reduce day-to-day volatility, it also amplified the size of corrections when large holders chose to take profits. One recent study found that Bitcoin’s annualised volatility has roughly halved in this cycle, even as individual sell-offs of 30% or more have become more frequent.
After November’s heavy outflows, ETF activity is now showing signs of stabilising, with some funds moving back to small net inflows. That shift suggests the “flow-driven” phase of the sell-off may be ending, leaving the market more sensitive to macro news and longer-term positioning rather than short-term redemptions.
Institutional Capital and On-Chain Signals
On-chain data providers are seeing a gradual deepening of liquidity as more institutional players enter the space. A joint report from Fasanara Digital and Glassnode highlights how ETFs, stablecoins and tokenised real-world assets are reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Whale wallets (addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC) have been quietly accumulating through the latest period of fear, with their number rising from around 1,350 in 2023 to over 1,450 by late 2025. Glassnode also notes that Bitcoin has absorbed an estimated $700-plus billion in new capital during this cycle and is showing signs of greater “stability” as liquidity spreads across more regulated venues and tokenised asset platforms.
Taken together, these trends point to a market that is still volatile, but increasingly shaped by professional money and structured products rather than retail speculation alone.
What Analysts Are Saying About 2026
Forecasts for Bitcoin’s next leg remain wide-ranging. Some institutional commentary describes the current move as a “late downtrend”, a stage that historically precedes larger reversals once forced selling has washed through.
Longer-term projections from research houses and educational platforms often cluster around the idea that, assuming macro conditions are broadly supportive, Bitcoin could trade in a six-figure band during the next phase of the cycle, with some estimates pointing to ranges between roughly $100,000 and $150,000, and more optimistic scenarios stretching higher.
However, even the more bullish commentators stress that these are scenarios, not guarantees. The growing influence of macro factors and ETF flows may also mean the old four-year halving pattern is less reliable as a guide. A recent analysis argued that the 2024 halving has had weaker predictive power than in previous cycles, with interest-rate expectations and institutional positioning now playing a bigger role.
Key Drivers to Watch into 2026
For traders and longer-term investors, three themes stand out as we move into 2026:
Central Bank policy and the US dollar – If the Federal Reserve moves towards rate cuts and the dollar weakens, risk assets including Bitcoin could find support. A stickier inflation backdrop and higher-for-longer rates would likely have the opposite effect.
ETF and fund flows – After November’s record outflows, the direction of flows in early 2026 will be closely watched. Renewed inflows could underpin a recovery; continued redemptions would keep pressure on prices.
Regulation and product expansion – The recent approval of spot ETFs on other large tokens such as Solana and XRP in the US, and major platforms like Vanguard opening up to crypto funds, are broadening the digital-asset investment universe.How capital rotates between Bitcoin and these newer products could shape performance in the next phase.
For now, Bitcoin ends 2025 well off its highs but still far ahead of previous cycles, sitting at the crossroads of traditional finance, macro economics and on-chain innovation. The path into 2026 is unlikely to be smooth, but we will all be watching closely.
Read more news and insights that could affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in our dedicated Market News section that we update daily. If you are looking for a broker to trade CFDs on cryptos, you may also wish to check our guide to the Best Crypto Brokers as well.
