Weekly Market Outlook: What Traders Are Watching This Week 27 – 31 October 2025

FX Trust Score Weekly Market Outlook

For the week ahead: 27 – 31 October 2025

Each week, FX Trust Score publishes a Weekly Market Outlook to help traders stay informed and prepared for the trading week ahead. The report brings together key developments across forex, equities, commodities and crypto markets, as well as insights into central bank activity and broker updates. It is a trusted source, designed for clarity and relevance and provides traders with a concise overview of what is driving global markets. Here’s what traders are watching in the days ahead.

Last Week in Review

Markets closed on a mixed note last week, as optimism over cooling inflation was offset by fresh concerns about global growth. The U.S dollar finished largely unchanged after a volatile few sessions, with traders weighing softer economic data against expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

In equities, the week ended with modest gains, helped by strength in technology and consumer stocks, while European markets remained cautious amid weaker business confidence readings. Gold decreased slightly after reaching fresh highs earlier in October but continues steady due to safe-haven demand. Meanhwile, Oil prices steadied as traders assessed the balance between slowing demand and supply constraints.

Why it matters: Last week’s cross-currents set the tone for the days ahead – positioning is light and even small surprises from key economic releases could spark renewed volatility across currencies and commodities.

The Week’s Key Events

United States: GDP update, PCE inflation, ISM/PMI surveys, consumer confidence, JOLTS.
Eurozone: Flash CPI, unemployment, sentiment surveys; ECB speakers.
United Kingdom: Nationwide house prices, mortgage approvals; BoE speakers.
Japan: Industrial production, retail sales; Tokyo CPI; BoJ summary of opinions (if scheduled).
China: Official/caixin PMIs; trade-sensitive headlines.
Australia/Canada: Retail, CPI fragments and labour-market reads; oil and iron-ore in focus for beta.

For exact releases and impact ratings, see our FX Trust Score Economic Calendar

Forex Pair Focus

EUR/USD

The pair remains capped by a firm but drifting dollar and mixed eurozone data. Flash CPI and U.S. PCE figures are likely catalysts for direction.
Why it matters: A hotter U.S inflation print could push EUR/USD back towards recent lows, whilst a softer reading might ease dollar strength.

GBP/USD

Sterling trades cautiously as markets weigh the Bank of England’s policy stance against sluggish domestic growth. Housing data and BoE commentary may set an important tone.
Why it matters: With positioning light, the pound could react quickly to any hints about the timing of rate cuts.

USD/JPY

The yen continues to stabilise, with carry appeal intact but volatility risk lingering ahead of Japan’s inflation and output data.
Why it matters: Any sign of policy adjustment or intervention talk from Tokyo could trigger a sharp yen movement that ripples through global risk sentiment.

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar remains tethered to China’s PMI releases and overall commodity sentiment. A solid print would offer support; a weak one could test recent lows.
Why it matters: AUD/USD remains one of the clearest barometers of Asia’s economic pulse and global risk appetite.

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Commodities & Metals

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is consolidating after a strong rally, with real yields and the dollar direction still key drivers. Dips continue to attract buying interest.
Why it matters: A dovish U.S data tone would support gold, while stronger figures may prompt profit-taking.

Oil (WTI/Brent)

Oil prices remain within normal ranges as supply signals clash with patchy demand data. Inventory figures and any OPEC+ commentary are in focus.
Why it matters: Crude price swings feed directly into inflation expectations and commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK.

Base Metals & Agriculture

Copper’s tone hinges on Chinese manufacturing data, whilst grains remain influenced by weather and export updates.
Why it matters: Industrial metals drive cyclical sentiment; soft commodities affect emerging-market FX and inflation.

Equities & Big Tech Watchlist

Tesla (TSLA)

Investors are watching margin trends and delivery guidance after a volatile earnings season.
Why it matters: Tesla remains a retail favourite and sharp price swings often ripple across growth stocks.

Nvidia (NVDA)

AI demand continues to dominate the narrative, with traders eyeing commentary around supply capacity and new chip launches.
Why it matters: Nvidia’s share performance is often viewed as a guide to how the wider technology sector is feeling.

Apple (AAPL) & Microsoft (MSFT)

Both remain defensive leaders in a risk-sensitive environment, with macro data likely to dictate short-term movement.
Why it matters: As AAPL and MSFT significantly influence global equity sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin consolidates near recent highs as traders balance optimism over institutional flows with caution ahead of U.S. data.
Why it matters: Crypto remains highly sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and liquidity conditions.

Broker & Regulation Watch

Regulators continue to focus on retail leverage, cross-border marketing and crypto-asset promotions. Work on the EU’s MiCA framework and other digital-asset rules remains ongoing.
Why it matters: New rules and consultations can affect broker operations, margin requirements and how products are offered to retail traders.

Trader’s Takeaway

The data this week could set the tone for global markets as a whole. Softer U.S numbers may boost confidence and pressure the dollar, whilst stronger readings could provoke a more cautious mood. Traders can expect a few sharp moves around key inflation and PMI reports.

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